In the first quarter of 2026, the global landscape was impacted by the conflict between the United States and Iran; energy transit routes faced disruptions, inflationary pressures rose, and supply chains came under strain. Consequently, international institutions generally downgraded their global economic growth forecasts. Against this backdrop, my country’s foreign trade achieved relatively rapid growth. Although exports experienced a pullback in March—hit by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—the sector as a whole demonstrated robust resilience. Simultaneously, challenges such as supply chain security and the transmission of external risks became more pronounced, signaling that the development of China’s foreign trade has entered a new phase characterized by the coexistence of structural upgrading and inherent risks.
I. Overview of Global Trade and my country’s Foreign Trade Landscape
In January and February of 2026, the volume of global merchandise trade reached approximately US$4.1 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. China, the United States, and Germany held the top three spots in terms of export market share, accounting for 15.9%, 9.3%, and 7.3%, respectively; meanwhile, my country steadily increased its share of imports among major global economies.
For the first quarter as a whole, my country’s total imports and exports amounted to US$1,690.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Specifically, exports totaled US$977.61 billion (up 14.7%), while imports reached US$712.86 billion (up 22.7%), resulting in a trade surplus of US$264.75 billion. In March alone, total imports and exports grew by 12.7%. Impacted by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, exports to Gulf nations plummeted by 60.9% year-on-year, and exports to the United States fell by 26.4%; consequently, the overall export growth rate slowed to just 2.5%. However, imports surged by 27.8%, reaching a record high.
Regarding trading partners, ASEAN, the European Union, and Hong Kong (China) emerged as the top three export markets. Exports to ASEAN totaled US$175.59 billion—an increase of 20.5%—while exports to Hong Kong saw a growth rate of 40.0%. These figures underscore the critical role played by emerging markets and regional cooperation in supporting China’s trade performance. Exports to the 64 nations participating in the “Belt and Road Initiative,” to members of the RCEP, and to Central and Eastern European countries grew by 15.4%, 19.0%, and 18.7%, respectively, further solidifying the pattern of market diversification. The structure of merchandise trade continues to optimize; electromechanical products, transportation equipment, and base metals rank as the top three export categories. Exports of electromechanical products reached $446.52 billion, marking a 22.6% increase, while the growth rate for transportation equipment reached 33.1%. Specialized intermediate goods for processing led the pack in both export volume and growth rate; integrated circuits, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, and computer components have emerged as core growth engines, collectively boosting overall export growth by 7.2 percentage points and contributing nearly 50% to the total increase. On the import side, intermediate goods serve as the primary support; significant growth in imports of integrated circuits, gold, and copper ore highlights the resilience of industrial demand.
Regarding pricing, the export price index experienced a slight decline while the volume index rebounded; imports demonstrated simultaneous growth in both volume and price, indicating that foreign trade expansion is currently driven by a combination of both factors.
II. Foreign Trade Outlook
Model forecasts indicate that in April 2026, my country’s total import and export value is projected to reach approximately $594.98 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of around 11.4%. Export growth is expected to range between 9.6% and 9.9%, while import growth is projected at 13.5% to 14.1%. Foreign trade is expected to maintain steady growth, with imports continuing to outperform exports.
III. Analysis of the Macroeconomic and External Environment
Current geopolitical conflicts have emerged as a pivotal variable in the global economy. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, is driving up global inflation. Consequently, the IMF has downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1% while raising its inflation forecast to 4.4%; should these conflicts persist, the global economy could edge closer to a recessionary zone. Developed economies face the dilemma of balancing growth stabilization with inflation control, while developing economies are under pressure from capital outflows and currency depreciation. A temporary divergence has emerged between financial markets and the real economy, leading to a rise in underlying risk factors.
Global trade and economic rules are undergoing rapid restructuring, shifting the multilateral trading system toward a “security-first” paradigm. The United States continues to escalate technological blockades and trade restrictions, actively pursuing the “de-Sinicization” of supply chains; non-tariff barriers and geopolitical interference have thus become new constraints on foreign trade. The geopolitical landscape has entered a phase of high uncertainty, characterized by the cross-border spillover of conflicts and the “securitization” of a broad range of issues; consequently, the stability of global energy, financial, and supply chain systems remains under constant scrutiny. IV. Coexistence of Risks and Opportunities
Core Risks
External shocks are subject to asymmetric amplification; specifically, the energy crisis in the Middle East is creating a reverse impact on my country’s industrial chains via re-export linkages, as volatility in energy and shipping sectors transmits to the manufacturing and export sectors.
Technology industrial chains face a dual squeeze from high-end technological blockades and intensified domestic competition, posing challenges to the progress of technological breakthroughs and the drive for technological self-reliance.
“Involution”—or intensified internal competition—is worsening in certain advantageous industries; price wars are compressing profit margins, and pressure for industrial transformation is on the rise.
Enterprises expanding overseas face heightened compliance and geopolitical risks, making institutional adaptability a new critical test.
Strategic Opportunities
The global energy crisis is accelerating the release of demand for new energy sources; my country’s strengths in green industries—such as lithium batteries and electric vehicles—are translating into competitive advantages addressing essential global needs, driving explosive growth in exports.
The advancement of “institutional opening-up”—specifically through the development of economic hubs like Free Trade Ports—is unlocking incremental growth potential and facilitating the linkage between domestic and international economic cycles (the “Dual Circulation” strategy).
The global industrial landscape is undergoing restructuring, expanding the scope for emerging markets to serve as alternatives to traditional markets; meanwhile, deepened regional cooperation is helping to stabilize the fundamentals of China’s foreign trade.
By consistently advocating for peace and dialogue, my country has emerged as a “stability anchor” for global capital and trade, attracting risk-averse capital and fostering demand for international cooperation.
V. Conclusion and Outlook
In the first quarter, my country’s foreign trade achieved a dual breakthrough: growth in total volume coupled with structural optimization. Import performance outpaced exports, validating the resilience of domestic demand; new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors emerged as new growth drivers; and market diversification effectively hedged against volatility in traditional markets. However, challenges such as geopolitical conflicts, the restructuring of global trade rules, and technological restrictions have become the “new normal,” signaling that foreign trade development has entered a new phase.
Looking ahead, my country’s foreign trade landscape will be characterized by three major themes: First, structural upgrading will continue to deepen, with new growth drivers offsetting the slowdown in traditional industries. Second, market restructuring will accelerate, positioning emerging markets as key stabilizers for trade. Third, institutional adaptability will become a core competitive advantage, driving the transformation of foreign trade from a focus on scale expansion to a focus on quality and efficiency—thereby enabling the nation to seize opportunities amidst risks and achieve high-quality development.